With the election now behind us, and regardless of how you voted, one thing’s for sure — it’s behind us - for now. It’s time to look ahead and make sense of what this new political chapter could mean for the Canadian real estate market.

Mark Carney has stepped into the role of Prime Minister, leading a Liberal minority government. While Carney brings a fresh face and financial credentials to the table, it's important to remember that this is still a Liberal government — the same party that’s been steering the country for the past nine years. This can be seen as good, or bad, depending on who you talk with. 

That said, Carney’s leadership promises a more focused and, perhaps, more pragmatic approach to housing. His platform during the campaign put real estate and affordability issues front and centre, with some bold initiatives aimed at increasing supply and helping first-time buyers.

What’s on the Table?

At the top of the list is a proposed removal of GST on new homes under $1 million for first-time buyers — a move meant to lower the barrier to entry for those struggling to break into the market. The Liberals have also committed to doubling the pace of home construction, with a goal of building nearly 500,000 new units a year, and the creation of a new crown corporation, Build Canada Homes, to directly support affordable housing development.

These are ambitious promises, and on paper, they sound like steps in the right direction. More supply could ease pressure on prices, and incentives for first-time buyers are long overdue in many markets.

But let’s play devil’s advocate for a moment.

Big promises have been made before. We've heard talk of affordable housing, accelerated builds, and homebuyer support for years — often with limited follow-through. While Carney might bring new leadership style and financial discipline, the system he's working within hasn’t changed overnight. We’re still facing the same housing challenges in a country where most of the zoning and construction approvals happen at the municipal level.

Looking Ahead — Again

Given the minority government status, it’s also fair to expect more political turbulence in the near future. Once the NDP, and likely the Conservatives too, sort out their leadership and internal restructuring, there’s a strong chance we’ll be back at the polls, my guess, in about two years.

In the meantime, what does this mean for you as a homeowner, buyer, or investor?

For now, nothing changes overnight. Markets may remain cautious until policies turn into action. But if the new government follows through on its commitments, we could see meaningful steps toward addressing supply shortages and housing affordability. I expect we will start hearing announcements on policies shortly, and the waiver of GST on homes under $1,000,000 will likely be a quick and easy first step.  Whether these policies translate into actual affordability or just slightly less competition remains to be seen.

Final Thoughts

The Canadian real estate market is a long game. Governments come and go, policies shift, and yet people still need places to live. The best strategy? Stay informed, and understand that while politics influence the market, they don’t define it entirely.

We’ll be keeping a close eye on how this unfolds — and as always, we’re here to help you navigate whatever comes next.

Many of our clients ask why we choose to be part of REMAX Twin City Realty Inc. instead of operating as our own brokerage. The answer is simple: being part of a large, well-established brokerage allows us to focus on what truly matters—delivering the best possible service to our clients.

By working within REMAX Twin City, we gain access to a powerful network of top-performing agents, increasing exposure for our listings and giving our buyers an edge in competitive markets. The brokerage also provides industry-leading training, cutting-edge technology, and marketing resources that help us stay ahead of trends and serve our clients at the highest level. Plus, having a dedicated administrative and compliance team ensures our transactions run smoothly, allowing us to focus on negotiating, marketing, and making the buying or selling process as stress-free as possible.

At the end of the day, being part of a globally recognized brand with a strong local presence gives our clients more confidence, more connections, and more results—without compromising the personal, hands-on service that makes our small team unique.

In speaking with one of our trusted mortgage brokers, they’ve said one of the biggest worries people have when buying a home is the appraisal coming in low. Thinking about it, we agree - this is a part of the process you as a consumer have no control over. 

One note I want you to remember though... It's rare for an appraisal to come in lower on a purchase! 

As one appraiser once said to me: "The best way to tell what a property is worth is by what it just sold for in the open market". Honestly, I rarely actually see an appraisal these days on a MLS purchase (most just auto-appraise), and when I do they almost always come it at sale price.

Clients with less than 20% down:

• I almost never see an appraisal needed for these clients, unless the property is in poor shape, purchased privately, or under power of sale. 

• The main reason we rarely see appraisals needed is that there are so many comparable sales in this price range, and the mortgage insurers (CMHC, etc...) are responsible for determining the property value. Their automated Valuation model (AVM) algorithm is super generous, so this rarely happens.

• For context, I can't think of a deal I have done in the last year for an insured purchase where the purchase price was not supported... not a single one!

Clients with 20% down:

• If they're looking under a million, again we see very few appraisals needed as long as the property is urban, not a rental, in poor shape, purchases privately, or power of sale. There's usually enough comparables in the market that either the lender's AVM or the appraisal supports the purchase price.

• If they're looking over a million (or more rural) and just have the 20% down, this is where there's a bit more risk at play simply because there are less supporting comparables, and the higher the price point, the more subjective the property evaluation becomes.

• Again... I can't think of my last deal where a purchase price under a million wasn't supported by either an AVM or an appraisal (knock on wood!).

Clients with a massive down payment (think over 35%):

• These are the easy files - almost no risk unless there's something wrong with the property itself.

• If a client is buying a $900k home with $300k down and the appraisal comes in at $880,000, in the lender's eyes it's simply a $880,000 purchase with $280,000 down, and the client is kicking in the $20,000 difference. Easy!

Hopefully this can help relive some stress you have when thinking about mortgages. If you need any additional help we love working with Jim! https://jimstefflermortgages.com/