With the election now behind us, and regardless of how you voted, one thing’s for sure — it’s behind us - for now. It’s time to look ahead and make sense of what this new political chapter could mean for the Canadian real estate market.

Mark Carney has stepped into the role of Prime Minister, leading a Liberal minority government. While Carney brings a fresh face and financial credentials to the table, it's important to remember that this is still a Liberal government — the same party that’s been steering the country for the past nine years. This can be seen as good, or bad, depending on who you talk with. 

That said, Carney’s leadership promises a more focused and, perhaps, more pragmatic approach to housing. His platform during the campaign put real estate and affordability issues front and centre, with some bold initiatives aimed at increasing supply and helping first-time buyers.

What’s on the Table?

At the top of the list is a proposed removal of GST on new homes under $1 million for first-time buyers — a move meant to lower the barrier to entry for those struggling to break into the market. The Liberals have also committed to doubling the pace of home construction, with a goal of building nearly 500,000 new units a year, and the creation of a new crown corporation, Build Canada Homes, to directly support affordable housing development.

These are ambitious promises, and on paper, they sound like steps in the right direction. More supply could ease pressure on prices, and incentives for first-time buyers are long overdue in many markets.

But let’s play devil’s advocate for a moment.

Big promises have been made before. We've heard talk of affordable housing, accelerated builds, and homebuyer support for years — often with limited follow-through. While Carney might bring new leadership style and financial discipline, the system he's working within hasn’t changed overnight. We’re still facing the same housing challenges in a country where most of the zoning and construction approvals happen at the municipal level.

Looking Ahead — Again

Given the minority government status, it’s also fair to expect more political turbulence in the near future. Once the NDP, and likely the Conservatives too, sort out their leadership and internal restructuring, there’s a strong chance we’ll be back at the polls, my guess, in about two years.

In the meantime, what does this mean for you as a homeowner, buyer, or investor?

For now, nothing changes overnight. Markets may remain cautious until policies turn into action. But if the new government follows through on its commitments, we could see meaningful steps toward addressing supply shortages and housing affordability. I expect we will start hearing announcements on policies shortly, and the waiver of GST on homes under $1,000,000 will likely be a quick and easy first step.  Whether these policies translate into actual affordability or just slightly less competition remains to be seen.

Final Thoughts

The Canadian real estate market is a long game. Governments come and go, policies shift, and yet people still need places to live. The best strategy? Stay informed, and understand that while politics influence the market, they don’t define it entirely.

We’ll be keeping a close eye on how this unfolds — and as always, we’re here to help you navigate whatever comes next.